Saturday, 8 June 2013

Stop Datamining, Save Online Poker

In its relatively brief history, online poker has faced several threats - legislative opposition, unscrupulous operators, and a fickle public, to name a few. Those threats persist, but a relatively new threat is emerging that could prove even more troublesome for the industry.

It's called datamining, and critics like myself believe it to be a malignant trend that will ultimately undermine the ability of online poker to support a healthy, sustainable player ecosystem. Datamining isn't a new trend, per se' - as long as there's been online poker, there have been players who aggressively sought to acquire the data online games produced - but the current incarnation of datamining tools and resources is so advanced and so pervasive that, even while you read this article, the nature of online poker as a game is changing dramatically as a result.

What is datamining? If you're not familiar, here's a primer. Every time a hand of online poker is played, a text file containing the details of that hand is generated. That file is commonly referred to as a hand history. In the early days of online poker, those text files were generally only available to the players who had participated in the hand, and weren't of much interest except for players who wanted to review their play.

As time passed and the game evolved, a small cottage industry emerged that developed tools for players who wanted to analyze their hand histories in-depth. Database programs such as PokerTracker made hand histories a suddenly useful commodity - you could import all of your hands and get detailed statistical breakdowns on every aspect of your play. As a side effect, you also accumulated a decent store of information regarding the play of your regular opponents.

If it had stopped there, no problem. However, once the data genie was out of the bottle, he proved impossible to stuff back in. Players quickly realized that while information about their own game was useful, a comprehensive library of data about potential opponents was indispensable. People started collecting hand histories and trading them with fellow players, and it wasn't long before commercial services saw the potential to make a buck and started (through various and arcane processes) collecting hand histories on a massive scale. Sites like PokerTableRatings now scrape nearly 100% of all cash game hands played on PokerStars, Full Tilt and other major sites, offering complete data on everyone who plays on those sites to members. Sites like HandHQ collect hand histories by the millions and sell them in batches to interested players.

In short: If you play a hand of poker on a major site, your next opponents can (and probably do) access that info.

It's not hard to see why this trend is potentially disastrous for online poker. The online poker ecosystem is essentially made up of three groups - winning regulars, part time players who hover around break-even, and casual players who pop in and drop a few buy ins every now and again. Datamining helps the first class, decimates the second and does significant harm to the third as well.

Winning, regular players are winning regular players because they exploit every edge available to them. Datamining is a huge edge, and the way that winners employ it essentially ensures that the middle and lower classes of players will go bust quicker than they would without datamining. To wit: if a regular player and a part time player both have access to the same information, you can assume the regular is not only more likely to utilize the information, but will also utilize it better. Regulars can also use their stockpile of hands to more quickly identify casual players - if they see a player at a table without many hands in their database, they know the chance of that player being an lower-skilled recreational player is high. Finally, regulars use the data to reach a sort of standoff with each other - it's not collusion or softplaying in the strictest sense of the terms, but if a regular recognizes 3 people at his table and doesn't recognize the fourth, you can guarantee that all four regulars will be working to pursue the easy money.

The result: great players find bad players faster and bust them quicker. That means less money for the part time player, who also must fight against regulars even better-equipped to take their money thanks to the datamining edge. Ultimately, part time players drop out of the ecosystem, and rooms must rely on a steady influx of recreational players (not an easy thing to generate) to keep their games afloat.

So if you can't stuff the genie back into the bottle, what's the answer? Build a bigger bottle, or kill the genie. Both are viable solutions for online poker, but it's going to take some innovative thinking and pressure from casual players for anything to be done.

One possible solution: anonymous tables. This is a suggestion you see floated every now and again, and it's not without merit. If everyone could change their screen name on a regular basis, then datamining would become irrelevant. You could still collect data on yourself, but hands on other players would be largely useless. The problem with this solution is that it's going to be tough to convince any major room to take the first step. One idea is to have rooms gradually adopt this policy by introducing some "anonymous" tables where players could choose a temporary screen name, but allowing the majority of the lobby to operate in a traditional fashion.

Another: a severe crackdown on sites that engage or facilitate in datamining, or a hardline policy against software that allows players to utilize data while playing. Stars and Full Tilt have both publicly announced their intention to shut down datamining, but despite those pronouncements there's been nary a dent made in the flow of data. It's going to take a real push from customers to show the rooms that their time and resources, already no doubt in high demand from other projects and priorities, are well-spent on stopping dataming. Email support at both rooms - as often as it takes - until you think they're quite clear on the importance of the issue from your perspective.

Information is power in poker, and it's never a good thing when the most powerful have unfettered access to the data spigot. If you enjoy the game as it is today, act now to preserve that game for tomorrow.


Source: http://ezinearticles.com/?Stop-Datamining,-Save-Online-Poker&id=4691446

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